FINAL NESCAC PREVIEW (UPDATED AND REVISED) FOR 2009-10!

The projections have been updated to take into account high than expected reflect attrition rates among returning players for several of the projected top finishers. The only change in projected finish spot as a result of the recalculations was Williams, which moved ahead of Trinity from sixth place into fifth place. The other significant developments were that the gaps between projected first and second place teams (Middlebury and Amherst) and between the projected third and fourth place teams (Bowdoin and Connecticut College) narrowed significantly, suggesting that there is not a clear front runner for the first spot and that both of these races are too close to call.

Here is the revised list of projected finishes, with the number in parentheses roughly reflecting the projected average winning (or losing) margin for each team, based on returning player data for each team and an overall assessment of the incoming players for each team:

1. Middlebury (1.24)
2. Amherst (1.11)
3. Bowdoin (0.26)
4. Connecticut College (0.17)
5. Williams (-0.08)
6. Trinity (-0.21)
7. Hamilton (-0.36)
8. Colby (-1.08)
9. Wesleyan (-1.34)
10. Tufts (-1.87)

Players who did not return to their teams this year include the following:

Middlebury:

Juniors Chaz Svoboda (D), Michael Kretschmer (D), and Trevor Dodds (F)

Amherst:

Juniors Jonathan La Rose (G) and Jason DeGiovanni (F)

Bowdoin:

Juniors Jeff Fanning (F), Tommy Herd (F), Ben Higgins (F), and Bryan Rosata (F), and sophomores Rudy Luther (F) and Steve Bayer (G)

Williams:

Senior (and Assistant Capt) Evan Seely (D), junior Matt Horan (D) and Richie Iskra (F)

Trinity:

Juniors Naoto Hamashima (F) and Justin Letizia (F) and seniors Michael Mortimer (F) and Zach Wissman (D)

Experiencing the biggest losses due to attrition were Middlebury, which lost two of its most productive and experienced D-men in Svoboda and Kretschmer, and Amherst, which lost 50% of its fabulous goaltending duo.  After the numbers were recalculated to take into account these losses, Middlebury is still projected to finish first in the NESCAC regular season but by only 13/100 of a point instead of the more robust lead of more than half a point lead under the first data run that assumed both Svoboda and Kretschmer would return (0.53 gap).

Similarly, Bowdoin went from a healthy 0.35 point lead over Connecticut College to an inconsequential lead of just 9/100ths of a point for the third spot. A total of 0.28 points separate the next three teams—Williams, Trinity, and Hamilton—which are bunched up in the fifth through seventh spots.

All in all, it should be an interesting year, with Middlebury making a move to return to the top of the heap with a massive infusion of new talent (14 new players) and Amherst fighting to retain its new found status at the top of the heap with a solid foundation of returning players and a more balanced infusion of new talent. The rest of the pack will challenge and two or three could emerge as serious contenders, with the right mixture of luck, surprises, and good goaltending.