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Rating the NESCAC recruits

The top 5 finishers in this year’s rankings of incoming recruits—Amherst, Bowdoin, Tufts, Middlebury, and Trinity—are close together, with only small differences separating each of them.

Two of the bottom-five schools (Hamilton and Colby at 9th and 10th) have deep rosters of experienced returning players, with very few openings in the regular rotation, and should not suffer from having relatively small incoming classes. Conversely, 2 of the teams in the top 5 (Amherst and Middlebury) suffered heavy graduation losses so taking it easy on the recruiting front was not an option for either school.

The team likely to suffer the most serious consequences from below-average recruiting is Conn College and its 7th ranked class of recruits. The Camels suffered great losses to graduation, losing players who scored 59% of its goals and its no. 1 goalie to graduation, and will likely continue to struggle to qualify for post-season play. Continue reading

Preview for the 2016-17 NESCAC season

The preseason predictions for the top 4 finishers in the NESCAC regular season are: (1) Trinity; (2) Bowdoin; (3) Hamilton; and (4) Williams. Trinity, which won the NESCAC championship in 2016 after a no. 2 finish in the regular season, is favored to capture the regular season championship but can expect a battle for the no. 1 spot. The next 4 finishers in the 5th through 8th spots—Tufts (5), Amherst (6), Colby (7), and Middlebury (8)—are bunched close together and with up-and-down movement likely within those 4 and even with those in the top 4. Wesleyan (9) and Conn College (10) are once again predicted to finish out of the running for play-off spots, but can likely be counted on to make trouble for the teams above them.

Teams facing big challenges this year include Middlebury, which lost 60% of its goals and 63% of its offensive production to graduation, and Conn College, which lost 59% of its goals and 49% of its offensive production to graduation. Middlebury also lost 44% of game experience to graduation and other departures, with Amherst not too far behind with a 37% loss of game experience. Conversely, teams with built-in advantages on the experience front include Bowdoin and Colby, with Bowdoin losing only 8% of game experience to graduation and Colby losing just 12%. Similarly, each team returns most of its offensive production, with Colby returning 91% of its points and Bowdoin not far behind at 89%. Continue reading

Trinity’s 2016-17 roster

At long last, Trinity has posted its 28-member 2016-17 roster, with no surprises. The 6 new players included in our recruits database are all on the roster, and the 22 veteran players that were expected to return are all on the roster.

Now that we have complete data for all 10 NESCAC teams, our season preview should be coming soon!

Amherst’s 2016-17 roster & preview

Amherst has, at long last, posted its 24-member roster for 2016-17, with no surprises. The roster includes all 8 freshman players that are included in our database and the 16 veterans from last year’s roster that were expected to return. While a 24-man roster seems like a small roster for the intense NESCAC season (3 goalies and 21 skaters), it is the same size as last year’s roster.

And here’s a link to a nice preview for Amherst’s upcoming season.

Now we are waiting only for the Trinity roster . . . .

Tufts’s 2016-17 roster posted

Tufts has posted its 29-member roster. The roster includes 9 freshmen, all of whom are included in our recruits database. Attrition was modest was 3 veteran players not retuning for this year: d-man Ryan Wolter and forwards JJ Ganss and Zack MacQueen. Wolter was a regular on the blue line so his contributions will likely be missed.

Only the Amherst and Trinity roster remain MIA . .

Conn College’s 2016-17 roster posted

Connecticut College has posted its 31-member roster. It is a young roster with 11 freshmen and 9 sophomores.  Missing from the roster are 7 veterans from last year’s roster–forwards Cory Swift, Johnny Kompson, Jeff Celniker, Bobby Mullins, Nick Buly, and Cam Toohey and d-man Joe Menniti–who collectively played in a lot of games (65) in the 2015-16 seasons but only contributed 1 point. On the recruiting front, the roster includes 11 new players, including 9 of the 10 in our recruits database (the missing player is d-man Courtney Morgan) and 2 additional players–forward Liam Ferguson (Amarillo Bulls, Chilliwack Chiefs (BCHL), and Brunswick (NEPSAC)) and d-man Jamie Carnavalla (Millbrook). Our recruits database has been updated it include their names and stats and to remove Morgan’s name.)

Just 3 laggards to go–Amherst, Trinity, and Tufts!!

Wesleyan’s 2016-17 roster posted

Wesleyan posted its 28-member roster today, with no real surprises. The roster includes 20 returning veterans, with only seldom used forward Kevin Hill missing form the list of expected returnees. All 8 of the recruits in our database are listed on the roster.

There are still four rosters outstanding–Amherst, Conn College, Trinity, and Tufts–even as opening night draws ever nearer (this Friday).